https://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Index en-au 5 https://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:48197  1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation. Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so-listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not recover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical.]]> Sat 11 Mar 2023 12:30:03 AEDT ]]> https://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/ /manager/Repository/uon:37466 Heterozostera nigricaulis, a common Australian species, across the Pacific Ocean to colonize South America. Location: Coastal Chile, Australia and the Pacific Ocean. Methods: Genetic analyses of H. nigricaulis collected from Chile and Australia were used to assess the relationship between the populations and levels of clonality. Ocean surface current models were used to predict the probability of propagules dispersing from south‐east Australia to central Chile and shipping data used to determine the likelihood of anthropogenic dispersal. Results: Our study infers that the seagrass H. nigricaulis dispersed from Australia across the entire width of the Pacific (c. 14,000 km) to colonize South America on two occasions. Genetic analyses reveal that these events led to two large isolated clones, one of which covers a combined area of 3.47 km². Oceanographic models estimate the arrival probability of a dispersal propagule within 3 years to be at most 0.00264%. Early shipping provides a potential alternative dispersal vector, yet few ships sailed from SE Australia to Chile prior to the first recording of H. nigricaulis and the lack of more recent and ongoing introductions demonstrate the rarity of such dispersal. Main conclusions: These findings demonstrate LDD does occur over extreme distances despite very low probabilities. The large number of propagules (100s of millions) produced over 100s of years suggests that the arrival of propagules in Chile was inevitable and confirms the importance of LDD for species distributions and community ecology.]]> Mon 11 Jan 2021 17:26:39 AEDT ]]>